Wednesday Evening Update

Okay, first the good news: The Santa Ana winds have died down and the bit of an on-shore flow that we were getting here near the coast yesterday have reached the fire-ravaged areas farther East. Buuuuuuut, this does make fighting the fire a more tenuous and dangerous proposition for the firefighters on the ground. If there could ever be a positive word spoken about the Santa Anas, at least they're predictable. They come from the East/Northeast to the West/Southwest. They're hot, dry, and extreme. The crews on the ground know basically what they're dealing with. Now, as the winds start to change, we're seeing the front of the fires change dramatically.

This is the most recent map from the SanGIS program. I obtained the map from the local NBC affiliate's website (www.nbcsandiego.com).

It's quite small, but I tried to label some changing fire areas: the black circles indicate (from top down) the Horno fire (Camp Pendleton), the Witch Fire (it merged with the Poomacha fire overnight as predicted), and the Harris Fire (Northern front and Eastern front). I did not circle the Fallbrook fire, though it should be noted that the front has moved to the Northern edge and is now threatening homes and has already destroyed a large share of the California avocado crop. If the Horno fire moves East, there is danger of it merging with the Fallbrook fire.

The Witch Creek Fire seems to no longer threaten the Rancho Santa Fe area, and in fact, many mandatory evacuation zones in the Del Mar/Encinitas (coastal) areas have been opened back up for people to return home. On the map, these are marked in green. The remaining evacuation zones (in addition to new evacuations that have been called in the last 24 hours) are purple. The new evac zones include, most notably, the historic town of Julian that was saved from the 2003 Cedar Fire only through the amazing and heroic stand that hundreds of firefighters took at the borders of the town. At last update, the fire was within 5 miles of the town and was advancing relatively slowly. The fronts of the Harris fire have also been changing. The fire stopped moving straight West and is now advancing in Northerly and NorthEasterly directions. This has caused new areas of evacuation to be declared, but has also allowed residents of the Otay Mesa and Otay Lakes areas (again, green zones) to return to their homes.

Here is an updated satellite image of the Southern Cali coast:

The conglomerated Witch Creek+Horno+Fallbrook fire is the one producing the most smoke, with the Harris fire to the South putting up a huge plume of its own. The fires blazing in Lake Arrowhead are still apparently raging, though from the news today it appears that they are receiving more air support than in previous days. Thankfully, the Santa Clarita fires seem to be under control, and we finally heard from our friend Matt who reported that they have safely returned to their intact home! Frighteningly enough, while staying with friends in Los Angeles, they saw a news report showing the fire coming over the ridge right in front of their home. The reporter and camera crew were standing in their driveway. Gulp! But aside from some ash and dust debris, their home is safe and sound, as are they.

Another little-mentioned situation that people outside of the San Diego area likely know nothing of is the fact that we've been teetering on the edge of maxing out power capacity. The Harris fire caused a 500 kilovolt line (called the Southwest Powerlink, reaching from Arizona to the coast) to be knocked out. There are something like 12 of these kinds of lines that provide power to California, but only one provides power to San Diego county. As a result, we've been operating under the kinds of conditions that could cause rolling brownouts at a time when using air conditioners to keep the heat and smoke at bay has been a necessity for most of the county.

I just saw a press conference where they announced that the line has been repaired - this involved innumerable power company employees working 24 hours a day for the past few days to get the line functioning again. Just another example of people going above and beyond to keep others safe.

I would just like to speak once more to the amazing sense of community that San Diego and San Diegans have exhibited in the last few days. On the national news, we've been hearing a lot of comparing the firestorm to Hurricane Katrina ... both in the way evacuations were handled and in the way the evacuees have been taken care of. I think this is a very long stretch of a comparison to make. For those who lived in San Diego or who otherwise remember the Cedar and Paradise fires of 2003, San Diego made many grave mistakes in the way they initiated evacuations, and in some cases, there was no official notification to residents. This time around, the county and city really did implement strategies that were called for in the wake of the 2003 fires, and it made all the difference. This time around, every newscast was giving a list of things to take with you when you evacuate and the most time-efficient ways to go around your house and determine what to take. Representatives from insurance agencies were stationed at evacuation sites and were able to give advice about how to file your claims should you return home to find your house gone. These are all lessons learned from 4 years ago. Should New Orleans get a do-over in 2 years (God forbid!), maybe then comparisons could begin to be drawn. Also, keep in mind that San Diego had Katrina in the back if its mind when organizing the inital evacuations ...

I've also heard (only on the national news) a lot of implications about wealthy white people getting organized help, which certainly appears to contrast with the way the stranded Katrina victims, who were mostly black and poor, were treated. There is a huge difference here, and one that shouldn't be overlooked. In New Orleans, the entire city had either evacuated or was stranded inside the city. In San Diego, a good 20% of the population of the city had been evacuated, which is an incredibly high number, but that also left 80% of the population sitting at home, being asked not to go to work, not to be on the roads, not to go to school ... sitting around watching 24 hour news coverage (like I have been!), and wanting to do anything and everything I can to help. That 80% has been out volunteering at the shelters, collecting food/clothes/goods to donate, and has been a very proactive and available source for help. Also, our thoroughfares (highways, state routes, etc) in and out of the city have been largely open and available for goods to be delivered and for emergency vehicles to use. Aside from a very small window of time early this morning when I-5, I-15, and Rte94 were closed in all directions, there has always been a route in and out of the county open. Okay, okay, I'm pretty much done standing on my soapbox. I think there have been many lessons learned from the disaster that was Katrina, and I'm certain that San Diego county isn't the only place that these lessons will be taken to heart and will influence policy changes for disaster preparedness. I'd love to hear your opinions as well ...

San Diego is not out of the woods yet, as the fires continue to spread and are nowhere near contained. Evacuations continue, but thankfully, some communities get to return to their intact homes. Burned areas are still off-limits, but fairly comprehensive lists of addresses of destroyed homes have been circulated on the news and the affiliates' websites, allowing some residents to begin the grieving process. Keep the firefighters in your thoughts and prayers, and let's hope the additional air support that the Navy is providing will help stop the march of these fires into more residential communities.